As can be seen here, the slight risk, represented by yellow, and 15% is surrounding the Enhanced risk or, the 30% area. Conditions within the Enhanced zone are forecast to be favorable for numerous severe thunderstorms. That black, hatched area, is where significant severe weather has a higher likelihood of unfolding. Significant can count as, hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts, potentially up to 90 mph, and a strong tornado, or strong tornadoes, EF2 or higher. Later tonight, a line of storms will approach from Oklahoma and Texas from the severe weather outbreak that occurred over in Texas and Oklahoma today. Those, according to the model data, dies out pretty steadily as it approaches Arkansas. Where these storms die will be a pretty good sized factor. This is because where they die, may be the initiation point for the afternoon storms, so if the atmosphere recovers enough, storms will develop in Eastern OK and move into W. Arkansas during the late afternoon to early evening hours. These storms will most likely gain strength as they move into a very good environment supportive of severe weather. That can be seen on the map above. Another factor will be cloud cover, right now data points to the warm front, that is currently passing over the state right now, will bring with it, cloud cover. But at the same time, it is indicating that there will be breaks in the clouds and substantial heating. Most of this will be a wait and see thing, because small scale features like this are pretty difficult to forecast without being on the day of, given how much this stuff can change. Another one, instability! That is a BIG player, most model guidance is suggesting that we will have favorable instability, this instability will be enhanced if the sun is able to shine through the clouds. If cloud cover persists, the instability MAY be hindered some, but regardless, the environment looks favorable for severe thunderstorms. With this said, let’s touch on storm mode. The initial storm mode at this time looks to very well be isolated storms. This would lead to a greater risk for tornadoes, so for the time being, initial storm mode looks to be isolated storms, then eventually a line may move in. This line would feature more of a damaging wind threat. How about a risk upgrade? A risk upgrade to Moderate (level 4/5) for severe weather is certainly possible, but we will have to wait on the Storm Prediction Center to see what they have to say about that possibility. With all of this said, let’s move onto the threats, the threats WILL change, but here is an updated threats outlook, as well as another OUTBREAK POTENTIAL update as well.
Damaging winds: Medium
Large hail: Low
Heavy Rain: Medium
Large hail: Medium
Damaging Winds: High
Heavy Rain: High
OUTBREAK POTENTIAL: Medium. Given that we get the right things to happen, breaks in the clouds, sufficient heating, etc. we could possibly see an outbreak.
That is all for this update as I need to wrap things up and head to bed for coverage tomorrow. I will try to release another blog before things get started. Thank you guys for reading, and have a good night!